China
Geographics | Politics

23. China

Aug 18, 2024

“China is a sleeping giant. Let her sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world,” is often attributed, without evidence, to Napoleon Bonaparte. But whoever made this astute observation was prescient because it reverberates across the globe today in a very unsettling way. The slumbering giant has awakened, and its ascent is shaking the very foundations of the global order.

China is ruled by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), which rose to power in 1949 after defeating the Nationalist government in the Chinese Civil War. This episode was marked by the formation of the People’s Republic of China under the leadership of Mao Zedong.

1970s: Opening Up

The 1970s marked a watershed moment in China’s history, ushering in a period of cautious yet significant opening to the West after decades of isolation under Mao Zedong’s rule. This shift was largely driven by Premier Zhou Enlai, a pragmatist who recognized the need for China to engage with the world to achieve its economic and political goals.

The catalyst for this change was President Richard Nixon’s historic 1972 visit to China. This groundbreaking diplomatic initiative led to the establishment of formal diplomatic relations between the U.S. and China, symbolizing the beginning of a new era. Premier Zhou Enlai embarked on a program of “opening up” to the West, known as the “Four Modernizations” — focused on agriculture, industry, national defense, and science and technology.

This period witnessed a gradual shift away from Maoist ideology, with the emphasis shifting towards economic development and pragmatism. While the CCP remained firmly in control, there was a discernible shift towards a more market-oriented approach. The “Gang of Four,” representing the radical elements of the Maoist era, were purged, paving the way for Deng Xiaoping’s rise to power in the late 1970s.

A brief period of political liberalization in 1978 gave birth to the “Democracy Wall” movement. Citizens were able to express their views through wall posters and open forums. This period of dissent was short-lived, however. The government quickly cracked down, highlighting the CCP’s intolerance of any challenge to its authority.

1980s: Tiananmen Square

The 1980s in China were a period of rapid economic reform and social change but also marked by growing tensions between the government and its people. The “opening up” policy of the 1970s led to significant economic growth, creating a new generation of Chinese who were increasingly educated, exposed to global ideas, and aware of persistent inequalities.

This dynamic led to a series of events culminating in the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests. Here are some key events of the 1980s that contributed to the unrest:

  • Deng Xiaoping reforms – In the late 1970s and the 1980s, Deng Xiaoping implemented sweeping economic reforms, including the introduction of market mechanisms, creation of Special Economic Zones to attract foreign investment, and privatization of some state-owned enterprises. While these reforms spurred economic growth, they also widened the gap between rich and poor. The growing wealth of a small elite and corruption and government inefficiency fueled resentment.
  • Student activism – The 1980s witnessed a surge in student activism. Universities became centers of intellectual ferment, with students discussing political and economic issues and forming student groups that advocated for democratic reforms and greater transparency.
  • Inflation and unemployment – Rapid economic growth came at a cost. Inflation surged, and unemployment increased, particularly in state-owned enterprises. This economic hardship further exacerbated public discontent and created fertile ground for dissent.
  • Hu Yaobang incident – The general secretary of the CCP, Hu Yaobang, was known for his reformist views and support for student activism. In 1987, he was forced to resign after being blamed for rising unrest. His removal further fueled student anger and resentment against the CCP’s authoritarian tendencies.

These events, combined with increasing economic disparities, corruption, and lack of political freedom, created a perfect storm that led to the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests. While the protests were initially peaceful, demanding greater transparency, democracy, and accountability, they were brutally suppressed by the government, culminating in the infamous crackdown of June 4, 1989. The Tiananmen Square massacre served as a stark reminder of the CCP’s willingness to use brute force to maintain its iron grip on power.

2000s: Xi Jinping

The 2000s were a period of remarkable economic growth and global expansion in China, driven by a combination of market reforms, technological advancements, and a growing middle class. However, this era of prosperity was also marked by simmering social tensions, growing inequality, and an increasingly assertive Communist Party (CCP) under the leadership of Xi Jinping.

China’s economy experienced sustained and rapid growth, fueled by exports, infrastructure development, and a burgeoning manufacturing sector. This led to a significant increase in living standards and the emergence of a large middle class. China’s explosive economy began to rival that of the West, prompting a global rebalancing of power.

The outsized growth of China’s internet and social media offered new avenues for communication, information sharing, and social organization. While these technologies facilitated economic growth and cultural exchange, they also challenged the CCP’s control over information and public discourse.

Despite the economic boom, inequalities grew between urban and rural areas and between the wealthy elite and working class. This led to social unrest, fueled by factors like pollution, corruption, and a lack of social safety nets. The global financial crisis of 2008 significantly impacted China’s economy, exposing vulnerabilities in its export-driven growth model. However, the government responded with a massive stimulus package that helped maintain economic stability and further solidified the CCP’s control over the economy.

Xi Jinping entered the political scene in the 2000s, first serving as Party Secretary of Zhejiang province and then as Vice President under Hu Jintao. He was known for his pragmatism, ambitious development plans, and his commitment to consolidating the CCP’s power.

Xi Jinping became general secretary of the CCP in 2012 and President of China in 2013. He launched a sweeping campaign to consolidate his power and shape a “New Era” for China, emphasizing nationalism, a stronger military, and a more assertive foreign policy. He also oversaw a crackdown on dissent and the erosion of any remaining space for independent thought or activism.

2020s: Great Firewall

Today, China is mired in a morass of controversies, including its aggressive stance in the South China Sea, the opacity surrounding the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak, the repression of the Uyghurs, and the Chinese Communist Party’s pervasive surveillance and control over its population. As the world’s second-largest economy, its global influence is growing, but so too are concerns about its governance under the CCP and Xi Jinping’s suffocating control of China’s population:

  • Disinformation – CCTV (China Central Television) is officially a Chinese public service broadcaster. In reality, it’s an aggressive defender of the CCP, and its job is to attack any perceived enemies of the party. After antigovernment protests broke out in Hong Kong, CCTV went to great lengths to vilify the protesters, spreading fake news about the movement’s nature to Chinese and international audiences. Many of CCTV’s attractive announcers and entertainment personalities are widely thought to be mistresses of married Chinese Communist Party officials, leading many Chinese to refer to Beijing’s state broadcaster as, “CCAV” — China Central Adult Video.
  • Authoritarianism – CCTV frequently features Xi Jinping speaking about “the Chinese Dream” — a vision of national rejuvenation that relies on a steady diet of nationalism and economic growth. But beneath the surface of Xi’s stern and cold demeanor, a darker truth simmers. China’s rise was built on a foundation of authoritarianism meticulously crafted and maintained by the Communist Party of China (CCP). The U.S. State Department describes the CCP as follows (download complete factsheet):

“The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) poses the central threat of our times, undermining the stability of the world to serve its own hegemonic ambitions. Despite efforts to defend its malign actions, the People’s Republic of China (PRC), under the control of the CCP, is not a model world citizen.”— U.S. Department of State
Ret. 18-Aug-24

  • Great Firewall – Xi Jinping has cemented his grip on power, dismantling any semblance of dissent. The “Great Firewall” of China, a digital iron curtain, chokes off the flow of free information. The death of Dr. Li Wenliang, the first high-profile healthcare casualty in Wuhan due to SARS-CoV-2, was followed by an outpouring of grief and anger on social media aimed directly at Chinese authorities. Social media users demanded that the Wuhan government apologize to Dr. Li for reprimanding him about his virus warnings. Two hashtags, #WeWantFreedomOfSpeech and #WuhanGovernmentOwesDrLiAnApology, garnered more than 1.8 million views on Weibo. China’s information control regime, however, quickly censored both hashtags, and censors also scrubbed the Chinese internet of any mention of his passing without explanation, prompting even more public anger.
  • Surveillance – As of August 2023, China deployed a network of 700 million surveillance cameras, some installed right outside people’s apartment doors. A Jan. 13, 2019 episode of 60 Minutes featured China-based venture capitalist Kai-Fu Lee describing two of his portfolio companies that use AI and facial recognition technologies to identify people on the street (Megvii’s Face++) or keep tabs on Chinese students to make sure they pay attention in class (TAL Education Group). When Scott Pelley asked Kai-Fu Lee whether China’s government had access to all the data on people’s phones, Lee was circumspect, showing just how intimidated even Western venture capitalists are in modern China.

Megvii AI Face++ SurveillanceOne of venture capitalist Kai-Fu Lee’s portfolio companies, Megvii, develops an AI-based product called Face++ that can identify people captured by surveillance cameras using machine learning. These types of technologies are used by the CCP to surveil the Chinese population.

    “Over the past 20 years, we’ve witnessed the largest military buildup since World War Two by the PRC.”— Admiral John C. Aquilino
    20-Mar-22

  • South China Sea – The CCP’s iron fist extends beyond its borders. In the South China Sea, China has staked a “nine-dash line” claim, encompassing 90% of the South China Sea and cutting into the exclusive economic zones of Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei and Indonesia. Taiwan, which China also claims as part of its territory, has said it does not accept Beijing’s maps. To intimidate its neighbors, China has fully militarized at least three of several islands it built in the disputed South China Sea, including a man-made island on Mischief Reef in the Spratlys group of islands near the Philippines. Each island is fully equipped with a runway and fighter jets, anti-ship and anti-aircraft missile systems, and laser and jamming equipment. According to U.S. Indo-Pacific commander Admiral John Aquilino, these efforts are part of China flexing its military muscle in the Western Pacific: “Over the past 20 years, we’ve witnessed the largest military buildup since World War Two by the PRC.” Near Second Thomas Shoal a sunken ship is manned by eight Filipino soldiers whose job it is to keep in China in check. This game of cat and mouse could quickly escalate into an incident, prompting the Philippines to activate its mutual defense treaty with the U.S. and leading to a nightmare scenario: a war between the U.S. and China. The world watches nervously with apprehension as Chinese warships patrol strategic waterways, their actions a stark reminder of the growing power of a state unwilling to play by international rules.
  • Uyghur muslims – Since 2017, the Uyghurs, a Turkic-speaking people living primarily in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region in northwestern China, have been subjected to a government crackdown. China has detained more than 1 million Uyghurs in “re-education camps” and is reportedly systematically erasing the Uyghur culture through mass sterilization and forced birth control. The CCP is silencing Uyghur voices by imprisoning prominent members of their society, including educators and journalists.
    Evidence seen by the BBC reveals that as many as a half million people are being forced to pick cotton in Xinjiang. The CCP’s crackdown on Uyghur Muslims in Xinjiang, documented by harrowing testimonies and satellite images, is the chilling apex of state-sanctioned repression. Several countries, including the U.S., U.K., Canada and the Netherlands, have accused China of committing genocide.

Dabancheng Uyghur Re-education CampGoogle satellite images show how China in just five years has constructed large “re-education camps” in Xinjiang, like this one near Dabancheng.

  • SARS-CoV-2 – The opaque handling of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak exposed the CCP’s culture of secrecy and its willingness to prioritize its own interests over global health. The COVID-19 pandemic, which first emerged in Wuhan in late 2019, has led to worldwide scrutiny of the CCP’s handling of the outbreak. In the critical early stages, Chinese authorities were slow to acknowledge the outbreak’s severity. Whistleblower doctors, such as Dr. Li Wenliang, who tried to warn the public, were censored or reprimanded. The delay in disseminating crucial information allowed the virus to spread unchecked, contributing to the global pandemic. China has consistently denied any wrongdoing in handling the outbreak and has rejected calls for an independent international investigation into the virus’ origins. The World Health Organization’s (WHO) initial reliance on Chinese data, some of which was later found to be incomplete or misleading, further fueled criticism of China’s lack of transparency. This opacity reflects the CCP’s broader priorities: maintaining control over information to preserve its image and legitimacy, both domestically and internationally. The suppression of details regarding the outbreak, while consistent with the Party’s longstanding practice of controlling narratives, had disastrous consequences on a global scale. More detail on the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in Wuhan and China’s role in silencing all those involved is provided in 15. COVID.

The world, grappling with a pandemic that had spread like wildfire, began questioning the cost of China’s economic success. The narrative of China’s rise, once painted in rosy hues, is now tinged with unease. The fate of the awakened giant hangs in the balance. Will it continue on its path of authoritarianism and global intimidation, or will it embrace a future of openness and respect for human rights? As the CCP tightens its grip on power, China’s ambitions are reshaping the global order, often at the cost of human rights, escalating territorial disputes, and a growing sense of unease across the globe.

Michael Tchong

Michael Tchong

Founder, Author, Adjunct Professor, Futurist

Michael Tchong is a relentless explorer of the future, driven by an insatiable curiosity to unravel its mysteries.
Ubertrends Reviews Ad